Trends in precipitation: analysis of long annual and monthly time series from mainland Portugal

Abstract

The purpose of this work is to investigate trends in annual and monthly precipitation in mainland Portugal by studying long time series. The data are from ten measuring stations scattered over mainland Portugal; some of the time series date back from the 19th century. Trends in these precipitation series were examined using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric trend test and the Sen’s nonparametric method. Both full monotonic trends (i.e., over the record period) and partial trends were investigated. Results provide no evidences for rejecting the null hypothesis of no trend in annual precipitation, when a monotonic linear model was used. On the other hand, the analyses of partial trends in the time series identified a sequence of alternating decreasing and increasing trends in annual precipitation, which are sometimes statistically significant. This type of behaviour was also observed for the monthly precipitation.