Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10316/88997
Title: Exploring the impacts of future tourism development on land use/cover changes
Authors: Boavida-Portugal, Inês
Rocha, Jorge
Ferreira, Carlos Manuel Batista Cardoso 
Keywords: Cellular automata; Markov chains; Scenario development; Land use policy
Issue Date: Dec-2016
Publisher: Elsevier
Project: info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/SFRH/SFRH/BD/75984/2011/PT/MODELAÇÃO DE ALTERAÇÕES DE USO DO SOLO E DESENVOLVIMENTO TURÍSTICO LITORAL: UMA APLICAÇÃO DO MODELO DE MULTI-AGENTES 
Serial title, monograph or event: Applied Geography
Volume: 77
Abstract: Land use/cover changes (LUCC) are central to tourism because land is used in multiple ways as a resource for tourism-focused activities. Tourism is essentially a geographical phenomenon, encompassing the movement and flow of people (seen as the demand side) and spatial distribution patterns relating to land use consumption (seen as the supply side). However, the impacts of tourism on LUCC are difficult to track and monitor. Contributing factors of this problem include a lack of empirical studies, shortage of micro-level LUCC datasets, and scarce methodological frameworks which can be used for assessments. This paper aims to provide a LUCC modelling approach in order to explore the impacts of tourism development on built-up areas. We developed a Cellular automata model (CA) which integrates Markovian transition probabilities and logistic regression transition suitability maps. LUCC rules for tourism development are framed within the national land use policy guidelines for the development of new tourism accommodation establishments (TAE). This primarily takes into consideration land cover compatibility and the proposed development's proximity to the coastline. Three scenarios were established to explore the impacts of tourism development in LUCC for the year 2020 in a Portuguese coastal region: business as usual (BAU); tourism trends (TOUR); and natural restrictions (NATR). TOUR results indicate that the tourism and urban land use/cover growth is higher and focuses heavily on the coastal region (within 5,000 m) when compared to the other scenarios. The overall results for BAU and NATR show a general convergence with the land use policy guidelines in terms of tourism nucleation and new TAE distance to the coastline.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10316/88997
ISSN: 01436228
DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2016.10.009
Rights: embargoedAccess
Appears in Collections:I&D CEGOT - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais

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