Systemic approach for the capacity expansion of multisource water-supply systems under uncertainty

Abstract

Increased demand, reduced supply or the imposition of new regulations might evince the physical limitations of the current infrastructure of a water supply system and force structural intervention. The problem consists of determining capacity expansion solutions for multisource water supply systems from a long-term perspective, with some representation of the uncertainty that can be involved and the risk-averse behavior of the decision makers. The systemic approach proposed includes a detailed simulation of physical processes, such as the water storage in surface reservoirs, the groundwater flow in aquifers and the water transport, with explicit representation of water quality. Water quality is a crucial element in multisource systems as the quality of the source water often varies. Different capacity expansion solutions can be obtained that explicitly balance the tradeoffs between the gains in system performance and the cost of the solution. The application of the systemic approach developed for the western Algarve multi municipal water supply system in Portugal shows that can deal with a real world case study.