Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602
Title: Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach
Authors: Rodrigues, Mónica 
Santana, Paula 
Rocha, Alfredo
Keywords: climate change; mortality; temperature extremes; distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM); projections; WRF model; Portugal
Issue Date: 2019
Project: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006891 
UID/GEO/04084/2013 
UID/AMB/50017/2019 
Serial title, monograph or event: Atmosphere
Volume: 10
Issue: 12
Abstract: Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, 0.63% and 0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, 0.62% for 2045–2065 and 0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management.
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602
ISSN: 2073-4433
DOI: 10.3390/atmos10120735
Rights: openAccess
Appears in Collections:I&D CEGOT - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais

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