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https://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602
Title: | Projections of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Modelling Approach | Authors: | Rodrigues, Mónica Santana, Paula Rocha, Alfredo |
Keywords: | climate change; mortality; temperature extremes; distributed lag non-linearmodel (DLNM); projections; WRF model; Portugal | Issue Date: | 2019 | Project: | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UID/GEO/04084/2013/PT/Centre of Studies on Geography and Spatial Planning UID/AMB/50017/2019 |
metadata.degois.publication.title: | Atmosphere | metadata.degois.publication.volume: | 10 | metadata.degois.publication.issue: | 12 | Abstract: | Climate change is now widely recognised as the greatest global threat over the coming decades. This study aimed to quantify and project the effects of climate change on future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases (CSD) in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and in Porto metropolitan area (PMA). The future time slices of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5), mid-term (2046–2065) and long-term (2080–2099) were compared with the reference period (1986–2005). There is a significant decreasing trend in proportion to the overall extreme cold temperature-attributable mortality due to CSD in the future periods (2045–2065 and 2081–2099) in LMA, 0.63% and 0.73%, respectively, and in PMA, 0.62% for 2045–2065 and 0.69% for 2081–2099, compared to the historical period. The fraction attributable to extreme hot temperature in the summer months increased by 0.08% and 0.23%, from 0.04% in the historical period to 0.11% during 2046–2065, and to 0.27% during 2081–2099 in LMA. While there were no noticeable changes due to extreme hot temperature during the summer in PMA, significant increases were observed with warmer winter temperatures: 1.27% and 2.80%. The projections of future temperature-attributable mortality may provide valuable information to support climate policy decision making and temperature-related risk management. | URI: | https://hdl.handle.net/10316/101602 | ISSN: | 2073-4433 | DOI: | 10.3390/atmos10120735 | Rights: | openAccess |
Appears in Collections: | I&D CEGOT - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais |
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