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Title: Statistical Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Deaths in Portuguese Metropolitan Areas under Climate Change: Who Is at Risk?
Authors: Rodrigues, Mónica 
Santana, Paula 
Rocha, Alfredo
Keywords: climate change; extreme temperatures; distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM); mortality; elderly; projections; WRF model; Portugal
Issue Date: 2020
Project: POCI-01-0145- FEDER-006891 
FCT - UID/GEO/04084/2013 
CESAM (UID/AMB/50017/2019), to FCT/MCTES through national funds and the co-funding by the FEDER, within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement and Compete 2020. 
Serial title, monograph or event: Atmosphere
Volume: 11
Issue: 2
Abstract: Several studies emphasize that temperature-related mortality can be expected to have di erential e ects on di erent subpopulations, particularly in the context of climate change. This study aims to evaluate and quantify the future temperature-attributable mortality due to circulatory system diseases by age groups (under 65 and 65+ years), in Lisbon metropolitan area (LMA) and Porto metropolitan area (PMA), over the 2051–2065 and 2085–2099 time horizons, considering the greenhouse gas emissions scenario RCP8.5, in relation to a historical period (1991–2005). We found a decrease in extreme cold-related deaths of 0.55% and 0.45% in LMA, for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively. In PMA, there was a decrease in cold-related deaths of 0.31% and 0.49% for 2051–2065 and 2085–2099, respectively, compared to 1991–2005. In LMA, the burden of extreme heat-related mortality in age group 65+ years is slightly higher than in age group <65 years, at 2.22% vs. 1.38%, for 2085–2099. In PMA, only people aged 65+ years showed significant temperature-related burden of deaths that can be attributable to hot temperatures. The heat-related excess deaths increased from 0.23% for 2051–2065 to 1.37% for 2085–2099, compared to the historical period.
ISSN: 2073-4433
DOI: 10.3390/atmos11020159
Rights: openAccess
Appears in Collections:I&D CEGOT - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais

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