Revisiting the relative age effect from a multidisciplinary perspective in youth basketball: a Bayesian analysis

Abstract

Relative age effect (RAE) is considered to bias the selection of young athletes and a cause of exclusion of many participants. The goal of the study was to unveil the effects of the birth quarter on physical performances and a set of psychological constructs in the age groups corresponding to the specialization years. A set of surveys with cross-sectional data collected from 2015 to 2019 in youth basketball was used. Three hundred and twenty-seven Brazilian players (127 females, 100 males), mean age 14.0 years, participated in the study. Counter-movement jump, line-drill, yoyo intermittent test, achievement goals, motivation for deliberate practice, and enjoyment were measured. Bayesian multilevel regression was performed. RAE was observed but its advantages did not persist and did not differentiate the players in the variables under scrutiny. The only predictor of athletic and psychological outcomes was chronological age. The initial advantage that triggered the coaches’ decision to select individual players disappears during the specialization years. Coaches must overcome the superficial observation of young athletes based only on age groups and actual performances, avoiding hasty decisions that, unlike RAE, last in time and cannot be reversed.