Utilize este identificador para referenciar este registo: https://hdl.handle.net/10316/13331
Campo DCValorIdioma
dc.contributor.authorMarinheiro, Carlos Fonseca-
dc.date.accessioned2010-06-23T13:22:33Z-
dc.date.available2010-06-23T13:22:33Z-
dc.date.issued2010-
dc.identifier.citationEstudos do GEMF. 7 (2010)en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10316/13331-
dc.description.abstractCredible fiscal plans that aim at restoring fiscal sustainability will be essential to counter the present increase in debt levels all across Europe. The macroeconomic scenario of such plans will be crucial. This paper assesses whether there is any advantage in delegating (part of) such power to supra-national forecasts. The evidence on the relative performance of the European Commission’s (EC) growth forecast is rather mixed, with considerable variation at the country level. Some national government forecasts (France, Italy, and Portugal) perform worse in terms of descriptive statistics than the EC forecast for all forecast horizons. For the year ahead the EC growth forecast is better than the official forecasts for almost ¾ of the EU-15 countries. All in all, since the EC forecast appears to be a good benchmark, in order to reduce the (optimistic) forecast bias, national governments could be forced to justify any large (optimistic) deviation from this benchmark when presenting their respective national stability and growth programmes.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherFEUC. Grupo de Estudos Monetários e Financeirosen_US
dc.rightsopenAccessen_US
dc.subjectSustainability of public debten_US
dc.subjectFiscal policyen_US
dc.subjectStability and Growth Pacten_US
dc.subjectFiscal forecastingen_US
dc.subjectForecast evaluationen_US
dc.subjectReal-time dataen_US
dc.titleFiscal sustainability and the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts: do supranational forecasts rather than government forecasts make a difference?en_US
dc.typeworkingPaperen_US
degois.publication.issue7en_US
degois.publication.locationCoimbraen_US
degois.publication.titleEstudos do GEMFen_US
item.fulltextCom Texto completo-
item.languageiso639-1en-
item.openairecristypehttp://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18cf-
item.openairetypeworkingPaper-
item.grantfulltextopen-
item.cerifentitytypePublications-
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