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Title: Risk Calculators in Bipolar Disorder: A Systematic Review
Authors: Ribeiro, Joana Silva 
Pereira, Daniela 
Salagre, Estela
Coroa, Manuel 
Santos Oliveira, Pedro
Santos, Vítor 
Madeira, Nuno 
Grande, Iria
Vieta, Eduard
Keywords: bipolar disorder; bipolar depression; risk prediction; risk calculator; risk score
Issue Date: 6-Aug-2020
Publisher: MDPI
Project: ISCIII (PI16/00187), co-funded by ERDF/ESF, “A way to make Europe”/“Investing in your future” 
J.S.R., P.S.O., M.C., V.S., and N.M. would like to thank the support of FCT–Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. through projects CENTRO-01-0145-FEDER-028214 and POCI-01-0145-FEDER-30943 (ref. PTDC/MEC-PSQ/30943/2017. I.G. would like to thank FEDER, Secretaria d’Universitats i Recerca del Departament d’Economia i Coneixement (2017SGR1365), CERCA Programme/Generalitat de Catalunya, Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PI19/00954). E.V. thanks the support of the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PI15/00283, PI18/00805) integrated into the Plan Nacional de I+D+I and co-financed by the ISCIII-Subdirección General de Evaluación and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER); the Instituto de Salud Carlos III; the CIBER of Mental Health (CIBERSAM); the Secretaria d’Universitats i Recerca del Departament d’Economia i Coneixement (2017 SGR 1365), the CERCA Programme, and the Departament de Salut de la Generalitat de Catalunya for the PERIS grant SLT006/17/00357. 
Serial title, monograph or event: Brain Sciences
Volume: 10
Issue: 8
Abstract: Introduction: Early recognition of bipolar disorder improves the prognosis and decreases the burden of the disease. However, there is a significant delay in diagnosis. Multiple risk factors for bipolar disorder have been identified and a population at high-risk for the disorder has been more precisely defined. These advances have allowed the development of risk calculators to predict individual risk of conversion to bipolar disorder. This review aims to identify the risk calculators for bipolar disorder and assess their clinical applicability. Methods: A systematic review of original studies on the development of risk calculators in bipolar disorder was performed. The studies’ quality was evaluated with the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Form for Cohort Studies and according to recommendations of the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis Initiative. Results: Three studies met the inclusion criteria; one developed a risk calculator of conversion from major depressive episode to bipolar disorder; one of conversion to new-onset bipolar spectrum disorders in o spring of parents with bipolar disorder; and the last one of conversion in youths with bipolar disorder not-otherwise-specified. Conclusions: The calculators reviewed in this article present good discrimination power for bipolar disorder, although future replication and validation of the models is needed.
ISSN: 2076-3425
DOI: 10.3390/brainsci10080525
Rights: openAccess
Appears in Collections:FMUC Medicina - Artigos em Revistas Internacionais

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